РАСТЕЖЪТ НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО В БЪЛГАРИЯ: ОТ ЗОРАТА НА ИСТОРИЯТА ДОСЕГА


Аркадиев, Димитър (2016) РАСТЕЖЪТ НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО В БЪЛГАРИЯ: ОТ ЗОРАТА НА ИСТОРИЯТА ДОСЕГА Университетско издателство "Св. св. Кирил и Методий" - Велико Търново, 2016, 324 с.; ISBN: 978-619-208-056-3


 THE GROWTH OF POPULATION IN BULGARIA: FROM DAWN OF HISTORY TO THE PRESENT Dimitar ARKADIEV SUMMARY Bulgaria enters in demographic crisis during the last twenty years. The crisis may transform in demographic catastrophe. What decisions have to take Bulgarian government and Bulgarian society to stop negative processes? Demographic policy has to base on trends o f the demographic processes in the past. What are these trends? The researcher needs any adequate data o f the population size and its changes during the so long time. This time may by divided in two parts - sources o f information before the statistical period and sources o f data from the statistical period. Bulgarian lands are inhabited since ancient times. The information of population size is based on archeological investigations, ancient authors’ messages, analogies from present days, contemporary authors’ researches, etc.. The results are followings (contemporary borders -1 1 1 000 km sq.). The size o f population is (in thousands): 6000 BC -1 2 0 ,5 0 0 0 BC - 200, 500 BC - 700, 1 AD - 1 000, 100 AD - 1 100, 200 AD - 1 200, 300 AD - 800, 400 AD - 500, 500 AD - 600. The information o f population size in Medieval Bulgaria (VT1-XIV c.) is based on similar sources, inventories o f households, etc. The results are followings (contemporary borders -1 1 1 000 km sq.). The population by years (AD) is (in thousands): 600 - 800, 650 - 850, 700 - 1 000, 750 - 1 100, 800 - 1 140, 850 - 1 220, 900 - 1 315, 950 -1 370, 1 0 0 0 -1 450, 1 0 5 0 - 1 550, 1 1 0 0 - 1 640, 1 1 5 0 - 1 790, 1 2 0 0 - 1 870, 1 2 5 0 - 1 970, 1 3 0 0 -2 090, 1 3 5 0 -2 230, 1 4 0 0 -1 6 7 0 ,1 4 5 0 -1 150. The population in actual borders by years is: 8 0 0 -2 -2 .7 millions (200 000 km sq. area), 9 0 0 - 4 millions(340 OOOkmsq.), 1 3 0 0 -2 .3 millions(125 OOOkmsq.). The information o f population size in Bulgarian lands under Ottoman Empire rule (XV - XIX c.) is based on similar sources, inventories o f households, censuses o f population (sins 1831), etc. The number o f population decreases twice after Ottoman invasion during XIV century (more than 1 mill.). The structure o f population by religious and ethnic backgrounds is changed, too. The number o f population by years is folio322 wing (in thousands): 1500-1 179,1550-1 386,1600-1 631,1650-1 990, 1700-2 257,1750-2 463,1800-2 745,1850-2 984,1875-3 402.Non- Muslims are 60 % and Muslims - 40 % of total population in 1875. The data of population and its structures after restoration of independent Bulgarian state (1878) usually are based on population censuses and registration of the demographic events. The territory of Bulgaria is variable from 1878 to 1944. The size of population increases from 2 852 600 to 7 029 349 during the period 1880-1946. The total absolute growth is 4 176 741. The natural growth is 4 184 741 and mechanical is negative (-7 992). Its components are: territorial changes - 290 234 and net migration negative growth (-298 226). Direct military losses are about 200 thousands and indirect - more than 400 thousands, or total - 600 thousands. The size of population increases from 7 029 349 to 8487317 during the period 1946-1992. The total absolute growth is 1 457 968. The natural growth is 2 362 290 and net migration negative growth is (-904 322). The size of population decreases from 8 487 317 to 7 364 570 during the period 1992-2011. The total absolute growth is negative (-1 122 747). The natural growth is negative (-725 611) and net migration, too (- 397 136). The part of natural growth is 65 % and net migration - 35 %. The size of population increases from 2 852 600 to 7 364 570 during the period 1880-2011. The total growth is 4 511 970. The natural growth is 5 821 420. Its components are: births - 17 650 136 and deaths - 11 828 716. Mechanical growth is negative (-1 309 450). Its components are: territorial changes - 290 234 and negative net migration (-1 599 684). Negative net migration growth is realized during the periods: 1) 1881- 1946- 18.7 %, 2) 1947-1992-56.7 % and 3) 1993-2011 -24.6 %. National ststistical institute (NSI) periodically makes forecasts of the population size. The last forecast is made in 2015. It has got three variants. The last year of forecast is 2070. The number of forecasting population is (in thousands): variant I - 5 132; variant II- 5 500; variant III-4 939. The basic ethnic groups in Bulgaria are three: Bulgarian, Turkish and Roma (Gipsy). The ethnic data is collected by censuses of population from 1900 to 2011 (excluding 1985). The trends are following: 1) the proportion 323 of Bulgarian ethnic group usually increases (from 77 % to 85-88 %); 2) the proportion of Turkish ethnic group usually decreases (from 14 % to 8- 9 %); 3) the proportion of Roma ethnic group is variable (2-5 %). The data by census 2011 is defective, because many persons have not responded of questions about ethnic, language and religious background (resp. 9.3 %, 9.8 %, 21.8%). The “real” ethnic composition is: Bulgarian ethnic group- 82.75 %, Turkish - 9.57 %, Roma - 5.53 %. Probably, the proportion of Bulgarian ethnic group will decrease to 70 % in 2070, Turkish will by 9-10 %, and Roma will increase to 20 %. All censuses in Bulgaria from 1880 to 1946 register a place of birth and citizenship/nationality of the persons. This question is restored again in 2001 and 2011. The proportion of people bom abroad dos not outmatch 5-6 % and with foreign citizenship/nationality - 1.5 %. The majority of people bom abroad to 1946 come from neighbor ethnic Bulgarian areas - Macedonia, Thrace, South Dobroudja, Old West Bulgaria, etc. They usually have got Bulgarian ethnicity. The natural growth of population is discussed, too. That is made by ethnic groups. The data is collected by Bulgarian state statistics from 1956 to 1974. They never have been published before. The birth rate, death rate, natural growth rate, and infant mortality rate by ethnicity have been discussed, too. The data has got any defects after 1965. The women fertility (15-49 ages) by ethnic groups is discussed, too. The data is taken from censuses in 1965, 2001 and 2011. Bulgarian ethnic group has got a smallest fertility rate, Roma ethnic group - biggest, and Turkish - among them. A life expectancy by ethnic groups is discussed, too. Life tables of mortality are built for 2001. The demographic method, demographic method with correction, and W. Brass method are applied. Bulgarian ethnic group has got a biggest life expectancy, Roma ethnic group - smallest, and Turkish - among them. Some more detailed data can find in Appendix and tables among text. 324
  Монография
 население, растеж, България


Хуманитарни науки История и археология
Социални, стопански и правни науки

Social sciences, economic sciences and law
Humanities History and Archeology

 Издадено
  7439
 Димитър Аркадиев

1. Румен Иванов.Българската народност на Балканите – опит за исторически, демографски и антропогеографски обзор. Хасково, РБ „Хр. Смирненски“, 2019, 440 с. ISBN 978-619-7230-12-3

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